Will Inflation Cause a Stock Crash or Not?

Joseph Hogue
•March 12th, 2025
DESCRIPTION
Inflation is coming and it could be one of the biggest surprises for stocks this year. The stock market has fallen back into a complacency on inflation and interest rates that could mean a crash later in the year. Get daily market updates and all the stock market news, strategies and tips you need! FREE https://mystockmarketbasics.com/dailybowtie
The Fed surprised the stock market last week by increasing it’s inflation estimate by 40% to 3.46% for 2021. That caused interest rates to jump but by Thursday, stocks were back to shrugging off inflation. Will inflation be a risk to the stock market or not?
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Modest inflation under 3% is not usually a problem for stocks. Savers aren’t destroyed and it helps borrowers. Companies can pass along costs and earnings increase. It’s when inflation heads higher than 3% that investors start to worry.
The consumer price index (CPI) hit 5% last month for the highest in decades. Producer prices have also jumped, increasing the most on record last month. While inflation isn’t yet a worry, it’s only because everyone thinks it’s temporary. If inflation continues this high for the next few months, investors could start to panic again and it could mean a stock market crash.
That means investing in inflation protection stocks and assets. I like gold again as an inflation hedge but the price is probably stuck in a range unless inflation really heats up. Bitcoin should provide a good hedge against higher prices and it’s got other factors in its favor as well. Real estate stocks have doubled the market return over the last three months and are probably your best bet for investing during inflation. Other stock sectors like Materials and Financials are also good ways to protect your portfolio against inflation.
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Joseph Hogue, CFA spent nearly a decade as an investment analyst for institutional firms and banks. He now helps people understand their financial lives through debt payoff strategies, investing and ways to save more money. He has appeared on Bloomberg and on sites like CNBC and Morningstar. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation and is a veteran of the Marine Corps.
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