When to Give Up on Stocks | Stock Market Crash 2022

Joseph Hogue
•March 12th, 2025
DESCRIPTION
The stock market broke its three-week losing streak but is the worst over for the 2022 stock market crash? Get all the stock market news, strategies and trends you need FREE to your inbox with The Weekly Bow-Tie Newsletter 🤑 https://mystockmarketbasics.com/dailybowtie
In this stock market live, I’ll give you all the stock market news, investing trends and show you how to invest in stocks right now. The stock market managed to break a three-week losing streak to close positive last week. Had it closed negative, it would have been the worst run since 2012. Of course, nobody wants to sound the all clear on stocks yet for fear of being wrong. It’s easier to just give generic advice like, ‘the drop in stocks may or may not be over’ than it is to actually say anything meaningful for investors. I’ll go out on a limb and say I do think the worst is over in the selloff for at least the first half of the year. The underlying economy is still very strong and while the overall market remains expensive, valuations have come down and we’re no longer in ‘bubble’ territory. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 could retest their recent lows but earnings are supporting stocks and once we get over the initial rate hike in March, I think investors will focus less on the Fed and more on the strength in the economy.
For this week, most of the focus will return to earnings. A third of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported with 77% of them beating expectations for 24.3% earnings growth over the year. That marks the fourth consecutive quarter of 20%-plus growth but probably the last as growth is expected to moderate.
That strong earnings growth though has brought stocks down to a very reasonable level on a price-to-earnings basis. Stocks in the S&P 500 are now trading at 19.2-times full-year expected earnings, just 3.8% above the five-year average of 18.5-times though still 15% above the 10-year average of 16.7-times forward earnings. Earnings growth is expected to slow to 9% for 2022 and 10% for 2023 but it does help take stocks out of the bubble-territory valuations we’ve seen over the last year.
The monthly jobs report is usually closely watched but will be written off when it comes out on Friday. I talked about this last month, the fact that new jobs will be disappointing due to people staying out on the Omicron which peaked during the survey week this month. There is reason to believe we start getting better jobs numbers in March though. People are running out of pandemic/stimulus savings and will be forced back to work by their budgets. Higher jobs numbers and a higher labor force participation rate should help ease inflation worries and contribute to economic growth, both strong signals for stocks.
We won’t see much in the way of commentary by Fed members this week and no inflation data so that could take the focus off rates and help improve market sentiment. If we can close higher again this week, that would be very supportive of stocks.
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Joseph Hogue, CFA spent nearly a decade as an investment analyst for institutional firms and banks. He now helps people understand their financial lives through debt payoff strategies, investing and ways to save more money. He has appeared on Bloomberg and on sites like CNBC and Morningstar. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation and is a veteran of the Marine Corps.
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