2022 Stock Market Crash | When it Ends and When I’m Buying

The 2022 stock market crash is back and there’s no sign stocks will stop falling…unless you know what to look for! I’ll show you my strategy and all this week’s stock market news. Don’t miss the conversation, join the subreddit! https://www.reddit.com/r/LetsTalkMoneyChannel/ We’re back into the bear market with stocks in the S&P 500 down 20%-plus from their January peak of 4800 and things are likely to get worse. I’m again seeing questions on the videos and on social asking when will stocks stop falling so I wanted to share my strategy. Having a strategy for when you invest is so important, not as a way to time the market but as a way to keep your sanity. Having specific points you watch for will keep you from watching the market every day and wondering if now is the time to invest. Make a strategy and keep to it. 🤑 Get The Weekly Bow-Tie - my FREE weekly email newsletter sharing market updates, trends and the most important news! Market Updates for the Smart Investor! https://mystockmarketbasics.com/dailybowtie I want to first outline why I think stocks will keep falling and then what I’m watching for as signals that the worst might be over. By its own admission, the Fed is expected to raise rates by at least another 1% over the rest of the year. We’ve only just begun to see the economy slowing from previous hikes so it won’t be long before the market shows us real signs of a recession in housing, retail sales and jobs. My Investing Recommendations 📈 Check out the stock simulator and Get six FREE shares of stock worth up to $10,000 when you open a Webull investing account with any deposit! 🤑 https://mystockmarketbasics.com/webull 📊 Download this Portfolio Tracker and Investing Spreadsheet! [Community Discount Code] https://mystockmarketbasics.com/spreadsheetdiscount Free Webinar – Discover how to create a personal investing plan and beat your goals in less than an hour! I’m revealing the Goals-Based Investing Strategy I developed working private wealth management in this free webinar. Reserve your spot now! https://mystockmarketbasics.com/free-investing-webinar ₿ Get up to $250 in free bitcoin when you open an account on BlockFi https://mystockmarketbasics.com/blockfi Inflation won’t come down until the jobs market cools so I’m also looking for two or three months of consistently weaker jobs numbers. Until then, the pressure will be on the Fed to keep rates high. Finally, I’m watching for the market to come to the realization that there will be a recession. For when to invest, I’m going back to a strategy of planned levels where I put cash to work. I’m currently holding about 30% of my portfolio in cash to step into stocks at three levels, putting some to work but still keeping some back if the market continues to fall. My first level is 3500 on the S&P 500 which would be 27% from the January peak and a new low for the year. Average bear markets have seen stocks fall 30% so I want to start putting some money back to work at this point. My second level would be 3200 or about 33% from the peak and for each of these I would probably invest a third of my cash. Finally, if the S&P 500 falls to 3000 or 37% from the peak, I would invest the rest of my cash. We don’t see any signs of systemic problems like in 2008 so I don’t think stocks fall much more than 40% from the peak though it is possible. I like 3000 because it would be about 15-times my estimate for S&P earnings of 200 per share next year. Analysts are expecting S&P earnings of $226 this year to grow to $243 next year but the average recession chops 10% off corporate earnings. So estimating a 10% haircut from this year’s earnings gets us to $200 per share for companies in the index next year. Then looking at a historical PE chart, 15-times has always been a good time to invest so even if stocks fall further down from 3000, I feel confident that long-term returns would be good. Stocks may not fall that far but I don’t want to jump back in too early either though. The market is now under 3700 and still has the utility bill shock as well as the eventual capitulation for a recession to deal with. I believe both of these will shock stocks lower when they occur. SUBSCRIBE to create the financial future you deserve with videos on beating debt, making more money and making your money work for you. https://mystockmarketbasics.com/LetsTalkMoney Joseph Hogue, CFA spent nearly a decade as an investment analyst for institutional firms and banks. He now helps people understand their financial lives through debt payoff strategies, investing and ways to save more money. He has appeared on Bloomberg and on sites like CNBC and Morningstar. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation and is a veteran of the Marine Corps.